A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
